Individuals can reduce oil consumption by using public transportation, cycling or walking, driving fuel-efficient vehicles, and conserving energy at home. Governments can promote energy efficiency standards, invest in renewable energy infrastructure, and implement policies that encourage sustainable transportation. The peak oil theory posits that oil production will eventually reach a peak and then decline irreversibly. While conventional oil production may have peaked in some regions, technological advancements and unconventional oil sources have complicated this theory, making its relevance debatable. OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a cartel of oil-producing nations that coordinate their oil production policies to influence global oil prices. Higher oil consumption rates naturally deplete reserves faster, shortening their lifespan.
Understanding the Remaining Oil Reserves
- This has been converted into primary energy equivalents (i.e., terawatt-hours of energy) for comparability across our other data on energy.
- If we do not significantly increase known oil beyond current proven/probable estimates, crude is exhausted within sixty years.
- If OPEC+ extends the unwinding of output cuts beyond April without reining in supply from members currently overproducing versus their targets, another 400 kb/d could be added to the market.
- Beyond conventional oil deposits, vast quantities of unconventional resources exist, including oil sands and shale oil.
At the same time, shifts in energy policies are affecting oil producers and consumers alike, with oil supply security remaining high on the international energy policy agenda. Some statistics on this page are disputed and controversial—different sources (OPEC, CIA World Factbook, oil companies) give different figures. Different estimates may or may not include oil shale, mined oil sands or natural gas liquids. They can incentivize the development of renewable energy, regulate oil extraction and consumption to minimize environmental impacts, and invest in research and development of alternative technologies.
FAQ 2: How accurate are oil reserve estimates?
The relationship is further complicated by factors like geopolitical events and OPEC production policies. As far as plastics and chemicals, a lot of modern petrochemical products have direct counterparts from the coal era. There were sound reasons to switch to petroleum-based products, but natural gas and coal will likely how much oil is left in the world suffice to provide relatively cost-equivalent versions of most petrochemicals, provided we still have access to them. Fluctuating oil prices have a significant impact on exploration and production activities. High oil prices incentivize increased exploration and production, as companies are more willing to invest in costly and risky projects.
Instead, it’s a dynamic estimate, influenced by factors ranging from geological discoveries and technological advancements to economic viability and political decisions. While alarming headlines sometimes predict imminent oil depletion, a more nuanced picture reveals a world of fluctuating supply and demand, and a continued search for new resources. In the interactive chart, we see global fossil fuel consumption broken down by coal, oil, and gas since 1800.
However, even with these mitigation measures and governmental efforts, if global warming is to be successfully limited to 1.6°C, only half of the world’s recoverable reserves would be required. It’s not unreasonable to conclude that policies and technological advances can reduce oil consumption and boost the energy transition, bringing us closer to a 1.6°C scenario,” says CEO Jarand Rystad. The question of when the world’s oil reserves will be depleted has been the subject of debate and predictions for decades. Despite periodic concerns about an imminent «peak oil,» the reality is that proven reserves have continued to increase thanks to new discoveries and technological advances in extraction. However, growing awareness of climate change and the transition to renewable energy sources pose a new outlook for the future of oil. Unconventional oil sources include shale oil, oil sands (also known as tar sands), and extra-heavy crude oil.
- While pinpoint accuracy remains elusive, current estimates suggest the Earth possesses enough recoverable oil reserves to last roughly 50 years at present consumption rates.
- While conventional oil production may have peaked in some regions, technological advancements and unconventional oil sources have complicated this theory, making its relevance debatable.
- When industry experts speak of total “global oil reserves,” they refer specifically to the amount of oil that is thought to be recoverable, not the total amount remaining on Earth.
- Fluctuating oil prices have a significant impact on exploration and production activities.
History of Global Oil Consumption
While future consumption can not be expected to follow any of these simple, flat-rate trajectories, the calculated ranges are instructive. If we do not significantly increase known oil beyond current proven/probable estimates, crude is exhausted within sixty years. If we continue to revise URR upwards at a rate similar to recent decades but do not decrease consumption below 2024 levels, crude is exhausted within 100 years. An important definitional note here – URR values include cumulative global production.
Climate change is expected to significantly reduce the demand for oil in the long term. As governments implement policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon taxes and regulations promoting renewable energy, the demand for oil will likely decline. The transition to a low-carbon economy is already underway, driven by both policy incentives and technological advancements. The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to significantly reduce oil demand for transportation, potentially extending the lifespan of oil reserves. Alternatives to oil include renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal), nuclear energy, and biofuels. The transition to these alternatives is crucial for reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and mitigating climate change.
The world has proven reserves equivalent to 133.1 times its annual consumption levels. This means it has about 133 years of coal left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves). Predicting when the world will “run out” of oil is virtually impossible due to several uncertainties.
According to the latest reports from organizations like the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global proven oil reserves are estimated to be around 1.7 trillion barrels. At the current rates of production, oil will run out in 53 years, natural gas in 54 years, and coal in 110 years, according to estimates from the 2015 World Energy Outlook study by the International Energy Agency. This forecast is predicated on the assumption that fossil fuels will constitute 59% of the total primary energy demand in 2040, even despite aggressive climate action policies. Rystad Energy’s latest research shows global recoverable oil reserves held largely steady at around 1,500 billion barrels, down some 52 billion barrels from our 2023 analysis.
These estimations are constantly updated as new data becomes available and as extraction technologies improve. Companies like BP, ExxonMobil, and Shell all have dedicated teams performing these estimations. Political instability, conflicts, and trade sanctions can disrupt oil production and distribution, leading to price volatility.
History of World’s Proven Gas Reserves
This means that every URR data point is an estimate of the total recoverable crude oil that was on the planet five hundred years ago, before humans began extracting it in any meaningful volume. The remaining oil reserves, while significant, are not an infinite resource. The environmental costs of oil extraction and consumption, coupled with the finite nature of the resource, necessitate a transition to sustainable energy sources.
Since our 2022 report, 30 billion barrels of crude oil have been extracted, the same level seen in 2018 and 2019, with 84 billion barrels added in fields, discoveries and exploration prospects. Increased reserves in producing fields and approved projects in 2022 amount to 71 billion barrels, while 13 billion barrels were found in new discoveries during 2022, equaling a net total addition of 54 billion barrels. If this scenario materializes, the main concern would no longer be a physical shortage of oil (peak oil), but rather a decline in demand as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources. This could have significant implications for producing countries and the oil industry in general. The world has proven reserves equivalent to 143.4 times its annual consumption levels.
Gas production: how much do countries produce?
Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves, on the other hand, are close to the surface and on land, which makes the oil much more accessible and the extraction process vastly more cost-effective. This, in turn, makes Saudi Arabia’s oil sector significantly more profitable. Energy conservation can significantly reduce oil demand, thereby extending the lifespan of existing reserves. Improving energy efficiency in transportation, buildings, and industry can help to reduce our reliance on oil. The extraction and use of oil have significant environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, air and water pollution, habitat destruction, and the risk of oil spills.
According to a 2021 study led by researchers at University College London, nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90% of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. Furthermore, scientists estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3% each year until 2050 to meet this goal. In 1980, the R/P ratio suggested only 32 years of oil production from existing reserves. However, according to data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the known oil reserves were 254% larger in 2022 compared to 1980, while natural gas reserves were 265% higher compared to the same period. In reality, as technology improves, the quantity of proven reserves should only improve as we become better at extracting fossil fuels or new resources are identified with new surveys. King Hubbert predicted that the world will experience an economically damaging scarcity of fossil fuels.
Countries
Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and oil companies themselves, regularly publish and update their reserve estimates. These estimates serve as the best available snapshots of the current situation. The world currently holds enough proven crude oil reserves to last for approximately 47 years at present consumption levels, which is the fundamental resource from which petrol is refined. Crude oil is the world’s main source of fuel and largest overall source of primary energy. In 2020, the world used approximately 88.6 million barrels per day of oil, which amounted to 30.1% of the world’s primary energy.
This means it has about 143 years of gas left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves). Venezuela has proven reserves equivalent to 1,374.2 times its annual consumption levels. This means that, without net exports, there would be about 1,374 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves). Venezuela holds 299,953,000,000 barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016, ranking #1 in the world and accounting for about 18.17% of the world’s total oil reserves of 1,650,585,140,000.
According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, as of 2021, there were approximately 1.7 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves worldwide. While this may sound like a significant amount, it’s important to note that these reserves are not evenly distributed across the globe. In fact, just three countries – Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada – hold over half of the world’s remaining oil reserves. If oil layers below porous rock are what then allows oil to rise up and form a reservoir, which we then get to using oil drilling rigs. If humanity decided we needed more oil much further in the future, could extract it from the deeper layers?
